Coinbase wants Bitcoin's quantum plan to split the coin container from the signature scheme
Coinbase has published seven points for a Bitcoin quantum plan, led by a design that separates the coin container from the signature scheme. Coinbase calls the post an input to an open discussion, and custody teams can test their own setup against the list.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Bitcoin's 10-block quantum sweep model covers 2.5 million BTC, two-fifths of the 6.04 million exposed
CryptoSlate's model fits a hypothetical 2.5 million BTC quantum sweep into 10 Bitcoin blocks, well under the 6.04 million BTC Glassnode counts as exposed. Jameson Lopp estimated about 2.6 million exposed BTC might be unable to migrate, the group a legacy-signature restriction could lock out.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Coinbase, which says it custodies roughly 5% of all bitcoin, argues a new signature algorithm will not make the network quantum-resistant. Its list adds dormant coins, block space, MPC custody and full-node validation, and it wants work to start now.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence72
Coinbase, which says it custodies about 5% of all bitcoin, warned on October 13 that a quantum-resistant upgrade could take years. It backs BIP-360, P2TRv2 and hybrid wallets now and wants dormant and lost coins settled separately.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 47%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence68
Fireblocks wants custodians to shrink Bitcoin's quantum exposure one spend at a time
Fireblocks' Michael Gutkin ties Bitcoin's quantum risk to exposed public keys, citing estimates that 6.7 million to 7 million BTC already sit behind them. Custodians can apply his remedy, fresh addresses plus a running count of exposed coins, without waiting for BIP 360.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence48
The construction runs inside today's Script limits, so no soft fork was needed. The cost of quantum defence moves instead onto the individual holder, at $75 to $150 per transaction.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 44%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 22%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives50
- Confidence60
Crowdsourced AI agents cut one step of a Bitcoin quantum attack by 86 per cent in about two months
Eigen Labs' ECDSA.Fail contest drove a point-addition resource score from 10.75 billion down to 1.496 billion. Neither IonQ nor Google has built the machine, and the end-to-end attack estimates that matter are still theirs.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence52
The G7's report carries no binding force and never says the word crypto, arriving four months before the EU wants member states moving, and it pushes quantum readiness into government procurement, which is how the cost eventually reaches private custodians.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
IBM buys HRL, lines up $2B of proposed federal money, and puts 2029 on the retention schedule
IBM has closed the HRL Laboratories deal behind a 2029 fault-tolerant target. For anyone holding ciphertext that must outlive the decade, the vendor's date is now the planning date.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives74
- Confidence38
Crypto's signature swap now has a date, a price tag, and no owner
Google has floated 2029 for moving digital assets off elliptic curve cryptography. Roughly 93% of the market sits on it, and no single party can order the migration.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence52