Mike Selig's CFTC put one rule into force Friday and proposed another defining event contracts as swaps under its sole oversight, with 30 days for comment. States have won two of three federal appellate rulings so far, and the Supreme Court has been asked to settle the fight.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 51%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence70
SEC estimates its proposed crypto self-custody fallback will cost each adviser that uses it $433,833 a year, and assumes about 823 firms will. After the CLARITY Act's Senate failure, that price helps decide which advisers can hold newly launched tokens for clients.
Perspective Coverage
15 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 21%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence76
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives62
- Confidence70
CFTC proposed two crypto rules creating a narrower exchange license for leveraged, margined and financed trades, open to comment for 60 days. Plain spot trading falls outside the CFTC's authority, and officials say they cannot yet size that leftover market.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 39%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives62
- Confidence72
Better Markets says the CFTC lacks the mandate to police leveraged retail crypto under the plan it floated on October 5. Its harder objection for the agency to answer is legal: the group says the statute the CFTC relies on was written for leveraged precious-metals fraud.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Better Markets presses the CFTC to bar exchanges from trading on their own platforms
Better Markets wants the CFTC to bar exchanges from trading on their own platforms, citing an agency count of six that already do. The figure shows the practice exists, though an arms race would need an earlier count and a total to measure.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
The SEC's September 17 Innovation Exemption runs five years and requires tokenized stocks to carry full shareholder rights, so the Jersey-issued debt securities Robinhood sells in 120 countries do not qualify as written, and issuers get a say in what does.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Community banks added $482 billion of deposits while stablecoins grew
The American Bankers Association warns that as much as $6.6 trillion of transactional deposits is exposed to stablecoin migration. That pool is about 2.6 times what every US bank under $10 billion holds in total, and small-bank deposits grew anyway.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence48
Hunter Biden's launch post disclaims the exact promise that would make LAPTOP a security
Arkham marked $144bn of fully diluted value two minutes after LAPTOP launched and $5bn at the half hour, and with the SEC's February meme-coin statement in force, the only cops left for the buyers are fraud cops.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence50
Better Markets sues to have court withdraw Basel III proposal, seeks Bowman's recusal
Better Markets says Michelle Bowman met big-bank executives privately and coached them to file mild comments, and it wants the Basel III proposal withdrawn and Bowman recused. She said she directed no one.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Kalshi and Polymarket will trade the midterms before any court rules on their legality
The litigation over whether election wagers are illegal gambling will not conclude before votes are counted, which leaves the platforms booking their largest volume inside about 25 states whose statutes ban it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives75
- Confidence58