Skip to content

Bab al-Mandab Strait

Narrow strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, a key chokepoint for shipping and subsea cables between Europe, Asia, and the Suez Canal.

Known aliases

  • Bab al-Mandab Strait
  • Bab-el-Mandeb

Current stories

productOne report1 publisher

Google paid up to triple the going rate for fiber that routes around the Red Sea

Google paid two to three times the roughly 6 million euro going rate for backup fiber across Turkey, according to a person familiar with the deal. Most Europe-Asia cloud traffic still crosses the contested Red Sea strait, so the premium buys a route for the day a cable breaks.

Publishers:restofworld.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption35
Hype gap+15
Incentives55
Confidence45
scienceOne report1 publisher

Houthi advance on Bab al-Mandab exposes Eritrea most by share and China most by dollars

Yemen's Houthis are advancing on Bab al-Mandab, the strait carrying 87% of Eritrea's maritime trade by value and US$520 billion of China's a year. Share and dollar value rank the exposed countries differently, and the researchers' US$30 billion estimate for a 30-day blockade is a global total.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives30
Confidence50
investConfirmed6 publishers

A 2.9 basis point day carried the 10-year over 5% for the second time since 2007

Brent near $108 and futures pricing a 92.3% chance of a Fed hike took the 10-year to 5.014% intraday. Capital Economics says the United States is not in a fiscal crisis yet because nominal growth still beats debt service.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 21%
Investor
Investor 72%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives35
Confidence68
investOne report1 publisher

Qatar's wealth fund commits $20 billion to JPMorgan, three-quarters of it public equities

The Qatar Investment Authority's new partnership with JPMorgan's asset management arm begins with a $15 billion public equities mandate, announced in the same week Qatar's Emir told the UN that the Gulf is in one of its most dangerous phases.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption30
Hype gap+12
Incentives62
Confidence46
investOne report1 publisher

Brent Crude Falls 2.9% as Iran and Oman Pursue Temporary Hormuz Shipping Deal

Friday's 2.9% fall prices Monday's first Iran-GCC ministerial since the war began, at a moment when regional exports sit near two-thirds of prewar levels and the Houthis are hitting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea bypass.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+32
Incentives74
Confidence44
investOne report1 publisher

Houthi forces close 90 kilometres on the strait that moves a tenth of seaborne trade

Perim Island splits Bab al-Mandab into two channels. The Houthis now hold it. Crude has crossed $100 on the escalation, while no diverted-tonnage or war-risk premium figure has been published to show cargo has stopped.

Reality

Evidence26
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+44
Incentives55
Confidence33
scienceOne report1 publisher

The Arctic route really is shorter. It still loses to the Cape of Good Hope

Coface's distance saving survives contact with the ice. The seasonal window, the hull premium, the Russian escort and the sailing schedule do not.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption12
Hype gap+38
Incentives55
Confidence56
investOne report1 publisher

China's Arctic liner run cuts Ningbo-Felixstowe to 20 days. The volume is still a rounding error

Sea Legend Line's new Northern Sea Route service halves Suez transit times, but the corridor carried 23 container ships last year and runs on Russian permits.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption21
Hype gap+42
Incentives63
Confidence45